941% Return in 1 Year! | Interview with Oliver Kell | The 2020 US Investing Champion

A Market-Maker's Son: Early Lessons in the Market

Oliver Kell grew up in the Bay Area around his father, a market maker on the Pacific Exchange, and the market became the language they shared. He bought stocks through college, including a Bank of America position in 2008 that he held for years without watching it. In his senior year he wrote an independent study comparing a military concept with the ideal trader, which pushed him into serious research. By then he had decided to do something with the market rather than just study it.

A Bucket Shop and an Arbitrage Desk

Kell's first job after college was at what he calls a modern-day bucket shop: he deposited $5,000 for $300,000 of buying power and traded off Level II bids and offers without charts. He spent six months learning how large bids and offers behave, but made no real money. He then joined a Stamford prop firm that ran international arbitrage, trading the Japan and London opens for two mentors and hedging currency exposure. He describes his arbitrage results as mixed, but the desk taught him how markets move beneath the surface.

Trader Florida, a Taper Tantrum, and the Long Way Back

Kell found Trader Florida on Twitter and learned chart patterns, price action, and volume — the root of the method he uses today. In the 2011 taper tantrum he was short the market, had his best day ever, and still watched the fund go out of business. He then worked on an institutional execution desk, buying hundreds of thousands of shares over months and learning how algorithms and VWAPs work. Compliance rules eventually pushed him through mutual funds and out of finance, until he moved to Philadelphia and began trading his own account about three years before this interview.

The Books That Built the Foundation

Kell recommends Livermore's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and How to Trade in Stocks, calling the latter one of his favorite books. He gives Darvas's How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market to friends and family because it simplifies the core idea: buy stocks making new highs, not stocks with room to fall into a new high. How to Make Money in Stocks, paired with Trader Florida, built his foundation, and he says every chapter of the Market Wizards books offers something a position trader can use.

Keep It Simple: Four Moving Averages and a Focus List

Kell's toolkit is deliberately small: chart patterns, price action, volume, the 10- and 20-period moving averages, and the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. He organizes his screen around open positions, a 10–15 name focus list, and a 5–6 name daily list, and says he is happy to miss names outside it. He will still take a trade in a core name he knows, like Stitch Fix, when it stands out in the morning. The point is to trade the homework he did the night before, not the tickers other people are posting during the day.

February 2020: Going to Cash, Then Buying Too Early

Kell started 2020 long and had a strong January with Tesla and Cardlytics, then found himself mostly in cash before the February gap down. His first mistake was buying strong names as they pulled back to their 20-day moving averages while the market was not ready to hold support. He cut size, recognized the index was below its 10- and 20-day averages, and made only occasional day trades in the QQQ while waiting out the correction.

The April Follow-Through — and the Top He Didn't Sell

Kell points to April 6, 2020 as his follow-through day, when stocks began performing better under the hood and Tesla became his focus. He describes the cycle: a base-and-break down through the moving averages, a wedge pop back above them, then months of riding the 20-day average higher. When stocks became extended from the 10-day — Tesla, CrowdStrike, MongoDB — he knew to sell but held for a bull flag, got smashed, and went to cash. On the long side, he says, a reversal extension sets the 20 EMA as the first target.

Too Tight for Too Long: The Summer Shakeout

Kell describes another wedge pop that looked strong on the daily chart, this time in Beyond Meat and Roku. The mistake was ignoring the weekly chart, which was still building a base, and the seasonality of a mid-summer market that needed to shake people out. When the handle became too tight for too long — an obvious tight consolidation everyone could see — the shakeout arrived. He had already reduced, so he gave back profits rather than taking the full loss.

Election, Vaccine, and the Rotation Under the Hood

Kell treated the 2020 election as a catalyst rather than a prediction, got long into it the way he had in 2016, and admits he got lucky. The vaccine announcement hit him, but he exited quickly and rebuilt exposure through the last two months of the year. He also stopped watching the indexes as closely: big-cap tech was underperforming, mutual funds were diversifying, and the IWM was starting to outperform, leaving opportunities under the hood.

Inside the 2020 US Investing Championship

Kell entered the championship intending to win and spent the first five or six months in the top five or ten before Matt and Tomas pulled away. Tomas built a huge lead with new margin, and Kell then suffered one of his biggest drawdowns: a hit off the top plus getting chopped up buying Square. On JT's advice he sold everything, stayed away from the market for three days, and came back with a fresh mind — then went on a run. He recommends the competition for anyone who wants exposure and an honest scoreboard.

Intermediate-Term Trend Follower — With a Fundamental Backbone

Kell calls himself an intermediate-term trend follower, holding core names six to twelve weeks and running swing trades of seven to twenty days with the other half of the account. He cites Joe Fahmy's idea that the market is healthy only two or three times a year, and that those windows deserve heavy exposure while the rest deserve lighter, shorter trading. He also says he is more fundamental than people assume: to hold a 100–300% winner through a 10–15% pullback, he needs to know the story, often discovered through products his wife, brother, or friends use.

Where Ideas Come From: Themes First, Then the Chart

Kell finds candidates on the new-highs list, big gap-ups, post-earnings bull flags, and large bases with a catalyst. He needs to understand the theme conceptually — Jumia as the Amazon of Africa, Fastly as cloud-edge infrastructure, CrowdStrike as security — before he will trade it. He also watches what is moving in the Ticker Monkey chat and researches themes like green energy after the election, which led him to TPI Composites. How well he understands the story also determines how much size he will take, which is why Plug Power stayed small while Tesla could be large.

The Four-Pattern Cycle: Reversal Extension, Wedge Pop, Base-and-Break

Kell reduces price action to four repeating setups: a stock bottoms on a reversal extension, then forms a wedge pop, then an EMA crossback, then a base-and-break, and finally tops on another reversal extension. He walks through Tesla in 2020: a base-and-break into the February high, then a reversal extension when the stock traded 45% above its 10-day on huge volume — capitulation to the upside. On the long side, a reversal extension is a selloff extended on the daily chart into a higher-timeframe level, with a stop at the low and the 20 EMA as the first target.

Wedge Pop and EMA Crossback: The Low-Risk Re-Entry

Kell defines the wedge pop as resistance at the 20 EMA followed by a base underneath and a push back through it; Tesla did exactly that after its April reversal. The next test back of the moving average is the EMA crossback, which he treats as the lower-risk entry because the stock has already proven it can reclaim the level. He bought Tesla on the wedge pop around earnings, sold some into strength, and stepped back in on the crossback a day and a half later.

The Base That Turns a Trade Into a Position

Kell says a sustained trend needs a big base, and Tesla's cup-and-handle followed by a base-and-break above the 20 EMA is what turned his tactical trade into a real position. He likes stocks above the 20 EMA rather than holding to the 50 SMA, which he finds too slow for his personality. He was long into the S&P inclusion announcement, sold at a loss when Tesla was passed over, then caught the eventual inclusion gap-up because a gap that does not fill is a sign the street was caught off guard. He sold into the extension from the 10-day, trying to get comfortable taking 300 points off the table.

Fastly: A 35% Position, and the Cost of Holding Into Earnings

Kell built a 30–35% position in Fastly on the post-earnings gap up, near his maximum size, because he knew the story through his brother's cloud-networking work. The trade was immediately profitable, and he added a second position as it based, but he sold the whole thing on a big red bar instead of trimming into strength. He bought back at $85, held a full position into earnings, and gave much of it back when the stock gapped down. The lesson he draws is to sell into extension rather than hold an extended stock through a binary event.

Livongo: Relative Strength, a Merger, and Selling Into News

Kell calls relative strength the holy grail and uses Livongo as his best example: while the Nasdaq made lower lows in March 2020, Livongo refused to confirm them and was being accumulated. He sized up to 30–35% on an EMA crossback into the 10-day, added on the flag break, and later bought back the same day after being shaken out of the 20-day — an O'Neil-style shakeout signal. When the merger news arrived while the stock was extended from the 10-day, he sold half in the premarket and the rest later that day, then tried a buyback at the 20 EMA before concluding the wind was out of it.

Cloudflare: The One That Got Away

Kell had picked Cloudflare with his wife as a teaching example of relative strength during the correction, and she bought it in her long-term account. He got stopped out, watched the stock double, and made almost nothing — a frustration he describes bluntly. He re-entered at $43, sold the next day after a gap up, then bought back and caught the main move before exiting on a distribution pattern: a stall day, a light-volume rally, and a green-to-red reversal.

What Relative Strength Actually Looks Like

Kell defines relative strength through Livongo's behavior in the March 2020 correction: the Nasdaq made a low on 2/28, rallied, then made a lower low on 3/12, while Livongo refused to make a new low and kept getting supported. He also looks for stocks that make a higher low when the index rolls over into the close, or that fight to stay alive while the market sells — the raw material of a wedge pop. The sign is accumulation under the hood, visible before the stock breaks out.

Buying the Pullback: Starter Position, Then Add

Kell does not buy the whole position at once at a moving average. On Peloton he bought a starter at the 20 EMA intraday with a dollar stop, then added the next day when the stock gapped up and moved his stop higher. Buying in one or two pieces gives him a cushion on the first tranche and more confidence to add; when a gap-up entry feels riskier, he may piece in over three buys, as he did on an earnings gap.

Fubo and the Wick Play

Kell bought Fubo in the $10–12 area, then made a mistake buying a pullback after an earnings gap that closed on the low; frustrated, he sold the whole position. He re-entered using a wick play — an inside bar followed by a wick — in the context of the larger pattern, theme, and moving average. He built the position from $16, added too early at $28.50, then added more to reach about 35%, and sold into strength at $48, $53, $58, and $60. The episode shows both his willingness to re-enter after a mistake and the cost of jumping the gun on adds.

When to Sell: Extension Is Stock-Specific

Kell decides when to sell by how far a stock is extended from its 10-day moving average, but the threshold depends on the stock: Procter & Gamble might stretch only 5%, while a high-flyer like Blink or Fubo can go much further. In the example, the stock was 40% above the 10-day and then ripped higher the next day; he called the move unnatural and exited. He tried to buy back at the 20-day, got stopped out, and says he will wait for the stock to become easier to trade before putting it back on his radar.

Position Sizing: 12–15% to Start, 30–35% Only on a Base Breakout

Kell starts most positions at 12–15% and adds 8–10% to reach a normal 20–25% position. He will go to 30–35% only when a stock is breaking out of a base with a catalyst and the potential to run for two or three months; he is rarely that large on a pullback to the 20 EMA. Size also depends on how well he knows the story and on relative strength within the current market.

Stops That Move With the Trade

Kell's initial stop is the low of the day when he buys at the 20 EMA, because losing that level removes his reason for owning the stock. After a breakout or explosion bar, he treats the low of that bar as the line the trade should not violate. As the stock pulls back, bases, and reconfirms higher, he raises the stop to the most recent low — a trailing stop that follows the trade, and a smaller version of Darvas's box method — rather than leaving it at an obvious level where he can be shaken out.

The Second Extension, and the Red-at-the-Close Rule

Kell studied his own trades and concluded he should look at the weekly chart more. When a stock is extended from both its 10-week and 10-day averages, that is usually a good time to take some off — not because it has topped, but because it is likely to consolidate. On the risk side, if a 20–25% position is red near the close, he sells at least half; with smaller positions he will tolerate a 3–5% stop. He keeps the account-level math in view because ten correlated growth stocks can all fail together.

Volume Is the Cause; Price Is the Effect

Kell learned from Trader Florida that volume equals price and cause equals effect: volume should confirm a move by the close or the next day. But volume must be read in context — huge volume while a stock is 15–20% above its 10-day and stalling can signal institutions distributing, not strength. Big volume at the start of a move is what gives a trend the fuel to run for months; selling volume at the end is what makes it fall apart.

Managing Margin and the 12–15 Name Rule

Kell manages the portfolio as a whole, not just trade by trade: when Bitcoin sold off and Tesla looked extended, he sold Tesla in the premarket and trimmed other positions because he was on margin and wanted to be lighter. He is comfortable with 12–15 positions; above that he sees a red flag that he is too long in the tooth, and below it he finds himself frustrated when his few names do not move. At 12–15, he says, there is a good chance eight or nine are working.

Teladoc: A Monthly Base With Multiple Shakeouts

Kell walks through Teladoc on the monthly chart, which he says is hugely important and too often ignored. He sees a 10-month moving average, a big-volume shakeout of the prior base, and repeated shakeouts around the 200-day SMA that burned late buyers. With the monthly based and the stock recovering off the 200 SMA, he started buying and added, building roughly a 20% core position, and he expects a weekly double-bottom base under $237 to break out.

Jumia: The Amazon of Africa

Kell likes Jumia because he can understand the theme: an e-commerce and logistics business for a continent with a huge addressable market and earlier-stage growth. On the monthly chart he sees the right side of a cup, a test of resistance, and a pullback to the 10-week average; he added and is looking for a larger handle in the $48–50 area. If it breaks out through that level properly, he says he will have a big position and thinks the stock could run to $100, citing its $3.6 billion market cap and the runway if it executes.

Why Higher Time Frames Improve the Daily Chart

Kell argues that time frames are fractal: a day trader executing on the 5-minute chart should know the daily level, and a swing trader should know the weekly because institutions trade off it. Paying attention to the weekly gives him a frame of reference — if a stock is extended from the 10-week, it may need two more weeks — and helps him avoid getting chopped up. He says he is convinced that studying the weekly would make him a better seller on the daily.

Blink: A Year-End Swing Trade in a Thin Stock

Kell had drawn Blink's cup-and-handle before he traded it, and the EV-charging theme gave him a reason to watch it even though he did not know the full story. Because the stock was thin, he did not try to buy tight against the 20-day; he bought a small piece at $24, added at $27–28, and reached a full position. He sold half into the bell and the rest on the open when the pattern looked like a prior distribution day, then re-entered when it went red-to-green on a gap down. His size grew from about 7% to 25% as each add was confirmed, with stops moving up behind him.

Closing Advice: Trade, Find Your Own Style, and Don't Give Up

Kell's advice to new traders is to read the books, but not to copy anyone's style wholesale: trade, discover what fits, and stick with it. He recommends finding a mentor or a group with more experienced traders, as Ticker Monkey and JT were for him, so there are people to motivate you through the inevitable tough stretches. He says that if you are willing to admit your faults and learn from your mistakes, you will improve over time.